Jump to Update Month 7 (wip)
Epistemic Status: non-serious/jovial; I don’t actually care about it but had fun exploring the extrapolations.
6 Months!
I’ve just reached my 6th month, i.e. half-year anniversary, of being on HRT!!
I’ve started taking occasional pictures in a time-lapse app to see progress over time and a couple months ago I also started taking chest measurements to keep track of those changes as well. Unfortunately, since I didn’t start tracking right away, I have some missing data (I also lost one data record that I had made on paper), but so far it looks like this.
I was already quite happy to see 6mm of growth from September to October, but 20mm over the course of the next month?
It did feel like they had grown quite a bit and I was really looking forward to measuring again already around Halloween, but did not expect that much!
That’s almost 3x more increase compared to the month before!
If we look at the % change of the total chest circumference we get:
We can also see the growth of the growth rate being about 102%. If we can keep that growth of growth up…
Running the numbers we can see that the growth % steadily climbs higher and higher. In February next year, the chest circumference will have barely exceeded its first meter. Since we don’t add a fixed proportion but a growing % each step, we reach 2 meters only half a year later and 4 meters only another 4 months after that (i.e. a year from now)!
Since changes are happening fast now, let’s up the units:
In November 2026, one year from now we’re at 4.1m, but only another year later we’re already reaching 215m, and another 4 months later we’ve breached the first kilometer in chest circumference!
From then on it will us only take until November 2028 (3 years from now) to breach 120km and with that over 1% of our moon’s circumference.
A mere 2 months later and we manage to do the same for our own planet, in January 2029. Now things are getting really fast and we’re nearing 200% of growth per month.
!
Towards the end of that same year (4 years from now) we long breached the Earth’s circumference, but also have two additional sun-sized objects in our solar system!
Whilst our sun is really large (compared to Earth), we are sooooo much farther away from it than it is large. But we just need one. more. month…
to reach 0.01 AUs.
Well, now things are getting fast.
Within the next 12 months we go from 0.03 AUs in January to almost 1 AU by the time my 5th HRTiversary rolls around, to over 2.4 times the distance between Earth and Sun by June, only to finally approach 1k AUs by December 2030.
Estrogen Usage
That’s all well and good, but we missed a thing…
In October I increased from 3→4 pumps of estrogen gel. While I don’t have access to data from counterfactual worlds, we’ll just assume the 102% growth-of-growth stems from the +33% in estrogen gel usage.
So, to keep up that 102% of growth-of-growth I also gotta use 133% of the amount of estrogen gel used last month.
Let’s assume it takes about half a minute for 1 pump of gel spread across both of my forearms to dry (by which I’ll be ready to spread another pump of gel; I do 2 pumps at a time, but either way, at the current 4 pumps that’s 2 minutes)
(I’ve reset the projection part back to 2025)
By next year I’ll have to spend an hour each day waiting for the gel to dry on my arms, which is a bit impractical…
But already 2 years from now I’d need to spend 33h/day on waiting for the gel to dry, so I clearly gotta expand the surface area.
Better. Now we can clearly see that in November 2027 I’d have to cover 1.38 forearm equivalents for 24h/day to keep up w the ever rising demand of estrogen gel intake.
OK…
So, this website shows nicely how much surface area each part of the body usually has.
This gets us all the way to August 2028, before in the month-after more than 100% of my body would have to be covered in gel for 24h/day. This would get us to…
A respectable 20km or 0.2% of our moon’s circumference!
Except…
I don’t actually want to gel my face. Nor shave off my hair for my back of my posterior head to become a gel absorber. The anterior torso, i.e. chest, is ofc an amazing source of ever-expanding surface area, but since e-gel on a chest increases breast cancer quite a bit, that area is off limits too! And genitalia/perineum will get crossed off as well.
That leaves me with still 72% of my body’s surface area.
Checking back on this previous table….
That costs us just a month or…
9km! :O
Well, 11km chest circumference isn’t tooo shabby!
According to Team Estrogen (hell yeah!) the difference in inches between the band and bust size gives us the letter, with common increments being 1 inch for A, 2 inches for B, 3 inches for C, 4 inches for D, etc.
At this point, the precise band size doesn’t really matter, we’ll just assume a flat 80cm.
1,127,857cm - 80cm = 1,127,777cm ≈ 444,007 inches
Sooo…
Offloading to new site bc it wrecks the loading time and stability
Also, I stumbled upon this on the internet shortly after writing this. Seems appropriate.
Update Month 7
The 4-shot measurement average is 84.5cm, which doesn’t just fall several cm short of the prediction but is less than at the 6 month mark!
It could be the case that each measurement is quite imprecise (the spread of this month’s measurements was >1cm) and the data only shows long-term trends, but doesn’t lend itself to comparing adjacent months.
Or maybe there are minor size fluctuations from, say, week-to-week which make the data more noisy.
But clearly the most likely scenario is a trend reversal, caused by the lack of steady increase in estrogen application (as calculated in Estrogen Usage), where we see a steady decline in size. In the 97%-of-% scenario we fall drastically below the assumed baseline of 80cm within 2 months.
By August 2026, we’ll be under the 30-33cm average chest circumference of newborns. One year from now we’ll be in the single digits
[add example sizes of comparable objects into excel; replace image w new one]
The alternative scenario is a linear trend reversal:
Here, in August 2026 we only just made it barely under the assumed 80cm baseline and it takes until 2033 to reach the chest circumference of newborns.
However, only 4 years later it gets interesting when the chest circ reaches 0 in late August, when the head will be free-floating above the body, for a brief time before either space-time itself becomes non-Euclidean and folds away, or a growing anti-matter anti-chest is forming, as the circumference reaches negative numbers. Which scenario is more likely to occur is an area of ongoing research.
Towards the end of 2048, the baseline is anti-restored, and by June 2026 we anti-regain the current size, and anti-exceed the previous maximum circumference.
